Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $691,575$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(4.05 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{896,653.8}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 140.9)}}\) (asimptote \(896,653.8\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $29,976$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(1.3 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{40,086.3}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 136.3)}}\) (asimptote \(40,086.3\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $139,348$ on 2020-09-08
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $425,541$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(4.09 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{399,773.9}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 100.7)}}\) (asimptote \(399,773.9\))
Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $11,682$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(831 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,357.6}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 101.9)}}\) (asimptote \(11,357.6\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $16,129$ on 2020-09-08
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $122,308$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(3.76 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{137,639.4}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 130.3)}}\) (asimptote \(137,639.4\))
Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $7,097$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(134 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,988.5}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 138.2)}}\) (asimptote \(7,988.5\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $40,113$ on 2020-09-08
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $110,757$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(1.29 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(53.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{148,426.7}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 125.7)}}\) (asimptote \(148,426.7\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $10,627$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(1.06 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(59.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,768.2}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 86.1)}}\) (asimptote \(6,768.2\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $8,888$ on 2020-09-08
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $4,162,073$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(1.68 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,800,219.0}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 130.7)}}\) (asimptote \(4,800,219.0\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $127,464$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(1.04 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(44.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{135,246.4}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 108.7)}}\) (asimptote \(135,246.4\))
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $462,188$ on 2020-09-08
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $671,533$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(6.61 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{923,763.3}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 153.9)}}\) (asimptote \(923,763.3\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $21,611$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(319 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,793.5}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 141.9)}}\) (asimptote \(28,793.5\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $120,905$ on 2020-09-08
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $500,034$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(3.46 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{857,342.2}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 169.9)}}\) (asimptote \(857,342.2\))
Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $10,405$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(76.8 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,795.5}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 193.0)}}\) (asimptote \(34,795.5\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $123,039$ on 2020-09-08
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $4,419$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(24.3 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,593.8}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 153.8)}}\) (asimptote \(5,593.8\))
Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $91$ on 2020-09-08
Best fit exponential: \(0.649 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{424.4}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 197.8)}}\) (asimptote \(424.4\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $733$ on 2020-09-08
